Storm Melissa Threatens East Coast as Models Show Possible Landfalls

Tropical Storm Melissa continues to strengthen in the Caribbean, with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasting potential hurricane status by the end of the week. Latest model guidance, including ECMWF “spaghetti models,” shows a wide range of possible tracks along the US East Coast, from North Carolina up to New England, though most scenarios suggest the storm will remain offshore.

Current Status

Located roughly 305 miles south-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and 335 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica
Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph
Hurricane watch in effect for southern Haiti; tropical storm watch for Jamaica
Expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Thursday, moving near Jamaica and southwest Haiti

Potential US Impact

North Carolina: Possible landfall near Wilmington or the Outer Banks around October 29–31
New York / Long Island: Less frequent and speculative, assuming the storm maintains strength after passing offshore North Carolina (October 30–November 1)
New England: Could reach Rhode Island, Massachusetts, or Maine as a post-tropical cyclone or weakening hurricane by November 1–2

Meteorologists note:

Direct US impacts remain unlikely, but the storm’s slow movement in the Caribbean and interaction with other systems could produce unusual northern tracks
Most model runs (70–80%) curve eastward into the Atlantic or dissipate, keeping land impacts minimal
Roughly 25% of tracks show possible Southeast or Gulf impacts, with North Carolina most frequently targeted

Forecast Considerations

Moderate wind shear balanced by warm, moist Caribbean air could allow slow strengthening
Strong upper-level winds and a dip in the jet stream over the Southeast US may prevent Gulf Coast movement
Long-range projections beyond 7–10 days carry significant uncertainty

Advice for Residents:

Monitor NHC updates closely
Prepare for possible coastal hazards including rain, gusty winds, rip currents, and flooding if the storm trends closer to the East Coast

Melissa remains a developing threat, and while the risk of US landfall is low, vigilance is advised as forecasts evolve.