Deep South Winter Forecast: No Snow Expected in Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and Florida Through Mid-January

A distinct and consistent weather signal is emerging across the Deep South, as new ensemble data indicates no measurable snow threat for Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and Florida until at least mid-January, despite mounting online chatter about a potential southern winter storm.

The most recent European global ensemble (ECMWF) prediction shows no chance of snowfall over one inch across these states through January 16, confirming expectations of a moderate and snow-free start to January for much of the region.

Mild Temperatures to Dominate the Deep South

Forecast statistics show that high temperatures will stay significantly above average, with daytime highs routinely reaching the 60s and even low 70s, especially in Alabama, Georgia, and Florida.

This warmer pattern is reinforced by the 12z ECMWF ensemble run, which indicates no prolonged cold air intrusion deep enough into the southern United States to cause winter precipitation. While minor cool downs are conceivable, the circumstances are not conducive to snow development during this time.

Snow Probability Maps Show a Sharp Northern Cutoff

The probability maps contained in the forecast data show a distinct snow boundary far north of the Deep South, with meaningful snow chances limited to:

The northern Plains
The Upper Midwest
Parts of the interior Northeast

Probabilities in Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, and Florida stay near zero, even when the forecast is extended beyond 10 days. This demonstrates that any snow talk for these states in early January is unsupported by solid model data.

Online Snow Claims Not Backed by Data

Some internet forecast pages and social media platforms predict a huge southern winter storm next week. However, the statistics suggest that these statements are based on low-confidence or engagement-driven projections, rather than ensemble-supported forecasts.

The ECMWF ensemble, widely regarded as one of the most dependable long-range instruments, shows no winter storm buildup in the Deep South, with temperatures remaining far too warm and storm tracks moving far north.