AccuWeather meteorologists are tracking a potential area of tropical development in the southwestern Caribbean, where warm ocean waters and favorable conditions could fuel the formation of a tropical storm or hurricane — even with just four weeks left in the Atlantic hurricane season.
According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Scott Homan, if a system develops, Central America and Cuba would face the highest threat, though Florida also has a low chance of impact depending on how the storm tracks.
Why It Matters
The Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1, runs through November 30. So far, 13 named storms have formed.
This new alert follows the devastation caused by Hurricane Melissa, which struck Jamaica as a Category 5 storm before slamming Cuba and the Bahamas and brushing Bermuda on its way out to sea.
Meteorologists continue to urge residents in hurricane-prone regions not to let their guard down as the season winds down.
What to Know
AccuWeather’s latest forecast highlights an area south of Cuba and northwest of Colombia, where low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures could promote tropical development through mid-November.
“We are closely monitoring the southwestern Caribbean for signs of tropical development in the coming weeks,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “Atmospheric conditions could support development through mid-November.”
If a storm forms, DaSilva said it’s most likely to move west toward Central America or Mexico. However, Florida, along with Cuba, the Bahamas, and parts of Mexico, remains under a low risk for tropical storm winds and rain.
The rest of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts currently face a near-zero risk of impact.
Historically, November storms are rare, forming about once every two years, though recent years have seen an increase.
“We are seeing an uptick in frequency with respect to late-season storms, which is likely due to the warmer sea surface temperatures observed,” DaSilva added.
In November 2024, three named storms developed in the Atlantic Basin, one of which became a hurricane.
What People Are Saying
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DaSilva (AccuWeather): “Warmer sea surface temperatures are making late-season storms more frequent.”
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National Hurricane Center (NHC): “Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next seven days.”
What Happens Next
As of Monday, neither the NHC nor AccuWeather is tracking any active storms.
Still, meteorologists warn that residents in Florida and the Caribbean should stay alert and monitor forecasts closely as hurricane season continues through the end of November.
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