Severe Tropical Storm Kalmaegi, locally known as Tino, is rapidly intensifying over the Philippine Sea and is expected to strengthen into a typhoon before making landfall in the central Philippines between November 3 and 4, 2025.
Satellite Overview
Kalmaegi intensified late on November 2 while moving west toward Eastern Samar. Forecasts indicate the system will reach typhoon intensity before landfall late on November 3 or early November 4.
As of 23:00 PHT (15:00 UTC) on November 2, the storm’s center was approximately 605 km (376 miles) east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar, and 1,226 km (762 miles) east-southeast of Manila.
The cyclone packed maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h (62 mph), gusts up to 125 km/h (78 mph), central pressure of 985 hPa, and was moving west at 30 km/h (19 mph).
Forecast and Intensification
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Kalmaegi is a consolidating storm with improving convective structure, low wind shear, strong upper-level outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures—ideal conditions for rapid intensification. Peak winds are expected to reach around 167 km/h (104 mph) within 24 hours.
PAGASA forecasts the storm will move westward across the central Philippines, with potential landfall over Eastern Samar, Leyte, or the Dinagat Islands late on November 3 or early November 4. It will then travel across the Visayas, near northern Palawan, and enter the West Philippine Sea by November 5 while maintaining typhoon strength.
PAGASA’s 72-hour outlook predicts sustained winds of 150 km/h (93 mph) west-northwest of Palawan before it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by late November 6.
Forecast Tracks
The JTWC also expects a westward track across central Philippines into the South China Sea, with continued movement toward southern Vietnam or Laos. Winds could peak at 167 km/h (104 mph) before landfall, followed by weakening over land and possible re-intensification over water.
Warnings and Advisories
PAGASA has raised Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 2 over:
-
Southeastern Eastern Samar (Guiuan, Salcedo, Mercedes)
-
Siargao, Bucas Grande, and Dinagat Islands
These areas may experience gale-force winds of 62–88 km/h (39–55 mph) within 24 hours.
Signal No. 1 is in effect for parts of:
-
Sorsogon, Masbate (including Ticao Island), Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Cebu, Bohol, Negros, Iloilo, Capiz, Guimaras
-
Northern Agusan and northern Surigao provinces
These regions could face strong winds of 39–61 km/h (24–38 mph) within 36 hours.
Marine and Rainfall Hazards
A Gale Warning remains in effect for the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao. Seas will be rough to very rough, with wave heights reaching:
-
Up to 7 m (23 ft) off Eastern Samar
-
6 m (19.7 ft) near Siargao and Bucas Grande
-
Around 5.5 m (18 ft) off Northern Samar
Rainfall Forecast:
-
Heavy to intense rain of 50–100 mm (2–4 in) is expected across Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region, and parts of Central Visayas through November 2 and 3.
-
Some areas, including Cagayan, Quezon, and Negros Occidental, could receive up to 200 mm (7.9 in) by the evening of November 5.
Storm Surge and Travel Risks
Sea travel is considered dangerous for all types of vessels, especially small boats. PAGASA has warned of potentially life-threatening storm surges in the next 48 hours along low-lying coastal communities in:
Sorsogon, Masbate, Romblon, Oriental and Occidental Mindoro, Palawan, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Misamis Oriental, and Camiguin.
Leave a Reply