This morning, gray skies and damp pavement greet winter with a softer touch than usual. The temperature is cold but not harsh, and winds blow throughout West Tennessee as clouds gather. While no immediate cold shock exists, conditions are already changing in ways that may influence travel and daily schedules over the coming days.
The Memphis National Weather Service predicts that beginning later Monday, light rain will spread throughout the city through Monday night. Rain chances rise 60 to 70 percent, with highs reaching the lower 60s on Monday and nearing 70 by Tuesday. Roads throughout Shelby County, including I-40 and I-240, may become treacherous after heavy rains, particularly during evening commutes.
To be fair, local temperatures are consistently far above freezing. Still, this system is important. A warm, wet setup in the Mid-South is part of a wider winter trend that will result in snow, ice, and flooding elsewhere. As colder air moves south later this week, even a slight cool-down after rain might raise concerns about patchy slick places at night.
By Wednesday, the clouds had thinned, and travel had increased ahead of Christmas. Roads may be dry, but drivers should be especially cautious in the early mornings and after dusk, when temperatures drop the most. Models indicate a larger winter pattern after Christmas, with colder air lurking north of Tennessee.
For now, keep umbrellas and patience on hand, allow additional travel time Monday and Tuesday, and keep an eye out for updates if you intend to travel during the holidays. Winter may start quietly here, but it rarely lasts long.
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